Friday, 6 November 2009

The fine line between gambling and trading

I traded the football at the start of the '09 season, both English and Spanish, and had a few good wins which bolstered my bank and my confidence; then followed several losses which promptly deflated my bank and confidence. It was at that point that I suspected there may be a bit more gambling involved in footy than my conscience could take.

However, I do still take a keen interest and follow a few football traders' blogs, including the "The Nugget Crew" (there's a link to their site in my Blog List). The chaps who run the site, Bingo and Adster, know a thing or two about trading the footy.

Most days they have a 'Trade of the Day' - today's one being Derby vs Coventry in the Championship. I've followed their recommendations quite closely, but have always been tentative about jumping on the bandwagon for the same reason that when I jump on a horse whose price is rapidly moving, it inexplicably goes the other way. The words "IT'S A CONSPIRACY!" then reverberate around my head.

Anyway, tonight I thought "sod that" and jumped on the wagon. The trade involved backing the 2-1 and the under 1.5 as insurance, the stake split being 67%/33%. The intention was that if Derby score first, the 2-1 should come in enough to cover the red on the <1.5 and we're out for a profit. Better still, hang on for a second goal from either side and green up a bit more. The <1.5 insurance would give us a near-enough scratch trade if 0-0 at half time.

I stuck a fiver on this recommendation, with the required split of £3.33 on the 2-1 and the remainder on the <1.5. The only 'spanner in the works' would be an early goal from Cov...

5 minutes into the game "MARKET SUSPENDED"!!!

Cov get an early goal, leaving the <1.5 in tatters and the 2-1 out a little bit. Knowing a second goal from Cov would sink both bets I redded up at about -£1.60 across both markets.

Just out of interest, I checked the 2-1 market a little later and, bouyed by a Derby equaliser, it would have come in enough to have earnt me about 3 quid of green after deducting the <1.5 loss.



A little later still, I checked again and...



IT'S A CONSPIRACY!

The game ended 2-1 in the end which would have made me £30-ish, but would 85 mins of praying and pacing up an down been worth it? Nah, it's too much like gambling.

2 comments:

  1. hi i've just started reading your bloG & like to say i think you hit the nail on the head with this post,.. i feel exactly the same way when I am actually biting my nails and pacing up the hallway.... Thank you for writing this, you just freed me up from losing on football punts in the future.... "not worth it" ! [ron coobie]

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  2. Cheers for reading Ron. This post was so long ago I'd forgotten about it!

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