Friday, 22 January 2010

Week 16

Week 16 of my 16 week challenge - that came round quick!

And what did I learn? Well for one, I'm not ready to retire on my earnings just yet!

It's funny reading through some of my older posts, I can see how naive I was at times. There's nothing wrong with that though, after all, it's what you'd expect when you first start out. You make little discoveries along the way, rendering yesterday's / last week's revelation obsolete. Things that seem like a big deal at the time - like a particularly big win / loss or a stake rise - appear trivial over time.

The psychology of trading is very interesting: have a good day and you're flying high, on top of the world, unbeatable; have a stinker and you start asking questions like "was I just lucky until now?" or "how long is this bad patch gonna last?".

One thought that enters my mind from time to time is "Wolverhampton is my bogey track". I'm not sure where this particular thought came from - "The Curse Of Wolverhampton" lol - but it's more or less at the back of my mind now...or is it? I've spoken of it now so maybe that will subconsciously cause me to trade differently there from now on! The mind is a kidder sometimes.

Things are heading in the right direction and I fully intend to keep at it for as long as possible. Here are some positives about my trading:

- I'm using £20-£35 stakes consistently without losing the shirt off my back
- I'm getting more used to the markets and am starting to recognise some of the behaviour
- I don't get so tense when I trade now, so my jaw doesn't ache like it used to
- I treat each day like it's an opportunity to earn some money
- The graph is heading in the right direction
- I haven't 'blown a bank' getting here

I do have some 'big picture' concerns such as:

- Am I going to be scraping by until my bank is big enough to push the price around like the big boys do?
- Is the government / Betfair / whoever going to pull the rug from under our feet with some new fangled policy?
- When is the next Betfair crash going to clean me out?
- Will the statistics that get banded around about how relatively few people actually make a living from Betfair, put me off for good?

Some quite profound questions there, but I'll try not to let them put me off :)

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