Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Crappy old day

WARNING: This post contains lots of moaning and whining!! (but hopefully you'll get something out of it)

A right crappy old day. Days like this make me wonder what the point of it all is


What a joke!!

I was chasing losses from the second race in and, although I'd started to make a dent in the loss by 5pm, things quickly slipped from my grasp again during the evening cards.

I've said it many times before and I'll say it again: I FLIPPIN' HATE ENDING THE DAY DOWN!!

It means that tomorrow is effectively a nothing day while I set about clawing it back. With no racing on Good Friday and an early finish on Saturday because of a trip, it probably going to be Sunday before I'm back to where I was at 2pm today.....GRRRRRRR!!! When it's going well this trading lark is great, but days like this really test your resolve if you're wired up anything like me.

Those who are perhaps considering trading as a career should certainly consider whether you can tolerate these kinds of days. Of course, it may be that your consistency is far greater than mine and losses of this magnitude are unheard of.....WELL GOOD FOR YOU!!! ;-)

I must have been desperate to trade the evening AW cards at this time of year. The old Wolves-Dundalk combo only equates to two things as far as I'm concerned: long wait times between races coupled with thin markets.

I tend to switch off if the action isn't coming thick and fast, meaning I'm usually caught off guard when I do get involved. Being an in-and-out-fast sort of trader, I don't often have the patience to sit there looking out for the gambles going on while the clock ticks down from 10 minutes. There were a few gambles going on tonight too, with one Dundalk runner backed in from 12s to 4s in about 3 minutes flat! At the end of a long, frustrating session they're not as easy to spot as desperation has already kicked in and all I want are quick repairs to my battered PnL. In this world of quick fixes, quick wins and instant-this-and-that, I suppose I've become as impatient as everybody else. I want results and I want them NOW! Shame really.


Outside of my day-to-day trading, I've been developing a spreadsheet so ultimately I can do my own odds compiling


Setting prices on horses obviously involves some seriously clever statistical modelling, whereas at the moment I'm just bunging some numbers in a spreadsheet and highlighting some data I think is pertinent. You have to start somewhere with these things though, and a very good book I picked up for a few quid on Amazon called The Definitive Guide To Betting On Horses from the Racing Post Expert Series is providing my with some great ideas of what to look for

Do you know the difference between a Classified Stakes race and a Median Auction Maiden?

Ultimately, I want the C# program I've written (which for now just pulls data into the spreadsheet), along with the rather cool Conditional Formatting that you can do in Excel 2007, to refine all the data I've got at my disposal and spit out a web page that uploads itself to the internet each day so I've got a custom, at-a-glance overview of my picks for the day. There's still a lot of refinement to do!

There are lots of stats programs you can buy off-the-shelf, but they're quite expensive to subscribe to each month and for the sake of learning a bit of scripting, I think it's far more rewarding doing a custom job so you end up with what you want.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Mets', I've added you to our new website and would appreciate a link exchange if you like our concept.

    http://www.horsetrainerdirectory.co.uk/

    Kind regards,
    Jason

    ReplyDelete

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